Melakukan
matematika pada Zika dan seks
Date:
June 28, 2016
Source:
University of Miami
Summary:
Seorang profesor matematika telah mengembangkan model ilmiah untuk mengatasi berbagai
cara virus Zika berproliferasi. Penelitian ini mengungkapkan bahwa pengendalian nyamuk
harus tetap ber metode mitigasi yang paling penting untuk mengendalikan virus.
Namun, penelitian ini mengungkapkan bahwa Zika adalah virus yang rumit
dan transmisi seksual meningkatkan risiko infeksi dan memperpanjang wabah.
.........................
Sebelum long jumper British Greg Rutherford berangkat untuk Olimpiade di Rio
de Janeiro musim panas ini, ia akan meninggalkan bagian penting dari balik dirinya :
sampel sperma beku nya.
Rutherford, dimana istrinya telah menyatakan keinginan untuk memiliki lebih
banyak anak-anak, melestarikan spermanya sebagai tindakan pencegahan
terhadap Zika, yang telah melanda lebih dari 30 negara Amerika Latin
dan Karibia, dengan Brasil yang paling terpukul. Ditularkan
terutama oleh nyamuk Aedes aegypti, virus juga dapat menyebar
dari seorang pria yang terinfeksi ke seorang wanita selama seks
dan dapat menyebabkan cacat lahir parah yang dikenal sebagai
microcephaly di mana bayi dilahirkan dengan
kepala abnormal kecil dan otak yang rusak.
............................
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Doing the math on Zika and sex
Date:
June 28, 2016
Source:
University of Miami
Summary:
A math professor has developed a scientific model to address the various
ways the Zika virus proliferates. The study reveals that mosquito control
should remain the most important mitigation method to control the virus.
However, the study reveals that Zika is a complicated virus and sexual
transmission increases the risk of infection and prolongs the outbreak.
.........................
Before British long jumper Greg
Rutherford departs for the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro this summer, he'll
leave an important part of himself behind: a sample of his frozen sperm.
Rutherford, whose wife has expressed the desire to have more children, is
preserving his sperm as a precautionary measure against Zika, which has swept
across more than 30 Latin American and Caribbean countries, with Brazil being
hardest hit. Transmitted primarily by the Aedes aegypti mosquito,
the virus can also be spread from an infected man to a woman during sex and can
cause the severe birth defect known as microcephaly in which infants are born
with abnormally small heads and damaged brains.
Few would probably criticize Rutherford for his actions, but what remains
unclear is how much of a role sexual transmission plays on the spread and
control of Zika.
Now, in a first-of-its-kind study, a University of Miami researcher and
others have created a mathematical model in an attempt to answer that very
question.
By itself, Shigui Ruan's model is not intended to measure the rates of Zika
transmission but to delineate the virus's possible pathways and to help
determine which of those transmission routes -- either mosquito-borne or sexual
transmission--is most important in investigating the spread and control of the
virus.
"Zika is a complicated virus," said Ruan, a professor of
mathematics in UM's College of Arts and Sciences. "It's not as simple as
passing a cold back and forth."
To build his model, he and his team combined the two modes of transmission
into a set of equations, and then calibrated their model to Zika epidemic rates
-- obtained through the Pan American Health Organization -- in Brazil,
Colombia, and El Salvador. Using factors such as the biting and mortality rates
of the Aedes aegypti and how partners protect themselves during a sexual
encounter, the researchers then produced what is called a "basic
reproduction number," essentially the number of infections resulting from
one initial infection in a population.
The team found that the average number of new infections that can be traced
directly back to a single case of Zika comes out to 2, and that sexual
transmission accounts for only 3 percent of new cases.
"Our analyses indicate that the basic reproduction number of Zika is
most sensitive to the biting rate and mortality rate of mosquitoes," said
Ruan, "while sexual transmission increases the risk of infection and
epidemic size and prolongs the outbreak."
Their results are published in the journal Scientific Reports.
The model can give epidemiologists and others a good idea of where they
should target management efforts, and in this case, mosquito-control measures
should remain the most important mitigation strategy to control the virus, said
Ruan.
Not that safe sex isn't important. "It's a reason to be concerned
because on top of mosquito transmission, we now have sexual transmission of the
virus," he explained, noting cases of sexually transmitted Zika in
Argentina, Chile, France, Peru, the United States, and other countries.
Zika can stay in semen longer than in blood, though it is not known for how
long, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports on its website.
"You could conceivably have somebody who was infected, and didn't even
necessarily know they were infected, carrying the disease around for a while,
have some sexual encounter, and infect somebody else," said Chris Cosner,
a University of Miami mathematics professor who has collaborated with Ruan on
other studies. "I don't think it's been documented. But possibly, in
theory, that could result in a source for an outbreak that seems to come from
nowhere. So for this particular disease, because of the complexity of the
transmission routes and the fact that some people can stay in the infected
phase for a long time, it's more complicated than your average disease."
Story Source:
The above post is reprinted from materials provided
byUniversity of Miami. The
original item was written by Robert C. Jones, Jr.. Note: Materials may
be edited for content and length.
Journal Reference:
1. Daozhou
Gao, Yijun Lou, Daihai He, Travis C. Porco, Yang Kuang, Gerardo Chowell, Shigui
Ruan. Prevention and Control of Zika as a Mosquito-Borne and Sexually
Transmitted Disease: A Mathematical Modeling Analysis. Scientific
Reports, 2016; 6: 28070 DOI:10.1038/srep28070