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iklim
Studi merehabilitasi model iklim
Tanggal:
6 Februari 2017
Sumber:
University of Bern
Ringkasan:
Dengan metode baru rekonstruksi,
peneliti iklim telah mampu menunjukkan bahwa sekitar 9.000 sampai 5.000 tahun
yang lalu, iklim Mediterania jauh lebih
hangat daripada studi sebelumnya. Antara lain, kekhawatiran sebelumnya mengenai
keandalan model iklim dengan demikian bisa menghilangkan.
..............................
Dengan metode baru rekonstruksi, peneliti iklim di Bern telah mampu menunjukkan bahwa sekitar 9.000 sampai 5.000 tahun yang lalu, iklim Mediterania jauh lebih hangat daripada studi sebelumnya . Antara lain, kekhawatiran sebelumnya mengenai keandalan model iklim dengan demikian bisa menghilangkan.
rekonstruksi iklim diperlukan karena data pengukuran terpercaya hanya tersedia untuk 150 tahun terakhir. Untuk alasan ini, penelitian tentang perubahan iklim masa lalu menggunakan apa yang disebut 'proxy'. Ini adalah indikator dimana dimungkinkan untuk merekonstruksi suhu di masa lalu. Sebuah metode rekonstruksi luas meneliti serbuk sari yang tertanam pada sedimen danau. Dari komposisi serbuk sari ini, adalah mungkin untuk menentukan spesies tanaman yang terjadi di lokasi tertentu di masa lalu - dan karena suhu dimana spesies individu tersebut membutuhkan juga diketahui , maka adalah mungkin untuk merekonstruksi kondisi suhu untuk periode yang dimaksud.
label
Studi merehabilitasi model iklim,Mediterania,rekonstruksi,iklim,proxy,Chironomidae,Apennines.,Oeschger
Paleoecologist
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Study
rehabilitates climate models
Date:
February 6, 2017
Source:
University of Bern
Summary:
With new methods of reconstruction, climate researchers have been able to
demonstrate that some 9,000 to 5,000 years ago, the Mediterranean climate was
considerably warmer than previous studies had suggested. Among other things,
previous concerns regarding the reliability of climate models could thus be
dispelled.
..............................
With new methods of reconstruction, climate researchers in Bern have been
able to demonstrate that some 9,000 to 5,000 years ago, the Mediterranean
climate was considerably warmer than previous studies had suggested. Among
other things, previous concerns regarding the reliability of climate models
could thus be dispelled.
Climate reconstructions are necessary because reliable measurement data are
only available for the last 150 years. For this reason, research on past
climate change uses so-called 'proxies'. These are indicators with which it is
possible to reconstruct temperatures in the past. A widespread reconstruction
method examines pollen which is embedded in lake sediments. From the
composition of this pollen, it is possible to determine the plant species which
occurred at a particular location in the past -- and since the temperatures
that the individual species require are also known, it is possible to
reconstruct the temperature conditions for the period in question.
It is on the analysis of pollen -- including from silver fir trees in Italy
-- that the only previously available quantitative summer temperature
reconstructions for the northern Mediterranean region were based on. These
suggested that the mid-Holocene (9,000 to 5,000 years ago) had been an
exceptionally cold period. However, it is also possible to examine past climate
using models. In contrast to the pollen analyses, model-based simulations
indicated that summer temperatures should have been warmer during this period.
This presented climate researchers with a puzzle: why do the
reconstructions of the summer temperatures for the northern Mediterranean
region in the mid-Holocene period clearly contradict the results from the
climate models? "The two results diverged so clearly," explains
Oliver Heiri, a Paleoecologist and one of the authors of the Bern study,
"that they made some of our colleagues question the reliability of climate
models for regions such as the Mediterranean." Different research groups
at the Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of Bern
have now been able to solve the puzzle, however. Their research has been
published in the journal Nature Geosciences.
Interdisciplinary collaboration led to the solution
The researchers at Bern demonstrate that the results from further methods
of reconstruction agree very well with the climate models. Ultimately, the past
distribution of important species of pollen-generating plants had not only been
determined by temperature, but also by other factors such as moisture levels,
early forms of agriculture and fire. If pollen from silver fir trees is
discovered in the layers of sediment for example, this does not necessarily
indicate that it was cold. This finding is based on an alternative method of
reconstruction which Oliver Heiri and his colleagues applied to this time
interval for the first time in the Mediterranean region. The researchers
examined past shifts in the abundance of indicative groups of midges
(Chironomidae) based on analyses of their fossils in sediment cores from two
lakes in the Apennines.
Further researchers at Bern were then able to show that the climate
conditions in the Apennines are representative for a large part of the northern
Mediterranean region. They also demonstrated the plausibility of the new
temperature reconstruction in terms of the results of the models. "It is
only discussions between researchers from differing disciplines which enabled
new hypotheses to be developed and examined in detail," explains Oliver
Heiri, before highlighting that "the Oeschger Centre is predestined for
this kind of collaboration."
The new findings on the past climate of the Mediterranean area do not mean,
however, that pollen-based reconstructions should be questioned in general.
Oliver Heiri emphasizes that the method remains useful in other geographical
regions, and especially for other periods. "Our work clearly shows the
importance of developing new methods for climate research though." The
Paleoecologist explains that this enables existing knowledge to be examined and
new research questions to be formulated.
Story Source:
Journal Reference:
1.
Stéphanie Samartin, Oliver Heiri, Fortunat Joos, Hans Renssen, Jörg Franke,
Stefan Brönnimann, Willy Tinner.Warm Mediterranean mid-Holocene summers
inferred from fossil midge assemblages. Nature Geoscience,
2017; DOI: 10.1038/NGEO2891
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