El Nino
mendorong peningkatan tercepat tahunan pada catatan karbon dioksida
Date:
June 13, 2016
Source:
University of Exeter
Summary:
Konsentrasi meningkatnya karbon dioksida di atmosfer telah melewati ambang batas simbolik awal karena peningkatan tahunan tercepat di catatan, laporan ilmuwan.
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Kenaikan disebabkan oleh manusia pada konsentrasi karbon dioksida pada atmosfer sedang diberikan dorongan ekstra tahun ini oleh fenomena iklim alam El Nino, kata para ilmuwan iklim dalam sebuah makalah yang diterbitkan dalam edisi hari ini dari journalNature Perubahan Iklim. Akibatnya, 2016 akan menjadi tahun pertama dengan konsentrasi di atas 400 bagian per juta sepanjang tahun di ikonik Mauna Loa catatan karbon dioksida .
Penulis utama Profesor Richard Betts, dari Kantor Met Hadley Centre dan University of Exeter, mengatakan: "konsentrasi karbon dioksida di atmosfer meningkat dari tahun ke tahun karena emisi manusia, tapi tahun ini semakin ada dorongan ekstra karena baru-baru ini El Niño -. perubahan suhu permukaan laut dari Samudera Pasifik tropis ini menghangatkan dan mengeringkan ekosistem tropis, mengurangi penyerapan karbon, dan memperburuk kebakaran hutan Sejak emisi manusia sekarang 25 persen lebih besar dari pada yang terakhir besar. El Niño tahun 1997/98, ini semua menambahkan hingga kenaikan rekor CO2 tahun ini. "
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El Nino drives
fastest annual increase on record of carbon dioxide
Date:
June 13, 2016
Source:
University of Exeter
Summary:
The rising
concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide has passed a symbolic threshold
early due to the fastest annual increase on record, report scientists.
..............................
The human-caused rise in atmospheric
concentration of carbon dioxide is being given an extra boost this year by the
natural climate phenomena of El Niño, say climate scientists in a paper
published in today's edition of the journalNature
Climate Change. As a result, 2016 will be the first year with
concentrations above 400 parts per million all year round in the iconic Mauna
Loa carbon dioxide record.
Lead author Professor
Richard Betts, of the Met Office Hadley Centre and University of Exeter, said:
"The atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is rising year-on-year due
to human emissions, but this year it is getting an extra boost due to the
recent El Niño event -- changes in the sea-surface temperature of the tropical
Pacific Ocean. This warms and dries tropical ecosystems, reducing their uptake
of carbon, and exacerbating forest fires. Since human emissions are now 25 per
cent greater than in the last big El Niño in 1997/98, this all adds up to a
record CO2 rise
this year."
The rising trend in CO2 was seen by Charles David Keeling when
he began recording CO2 at
Mauna Loa, Hawaii, in 1958. His early measurements were around 315 parts per
million of carbon dioxide, 60 years later this has been rising at an average
rate of 2.1 parts per million, but using a seasonal climate forecast model and
statistical relationship with sea temperatures, Professor Betts and colleagues
forecast the rise this year to be a record 3.15 + -- 0.53 parts per million.
The average concentration in 2016 is forecast to be 404.45 +-0.53 parts per
million, dropping to 401.48 +- 0.53 in September before resuming their ongoing
rise next year. The scientists already successfully predicted this year's maximum
concentration of 407 parts per million last month.
Carbon dioxide
concentrations also show modest ups-and-downs with the seasons. Plants draw
down CO2 in
the summer and release it again in the autumn and winter. Professor Betts said:
"Carbon dioxide at Mauna Loa is currently above 400 parts per million, but
would have been expected to drop back down below this level in September.
However, we predict that this will not happen now, because the recent El Niño
has warmed and dried tropical ecosystems and driven forest fires, adding to the
CO2 rise."
Since natural processes
only remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere gradually, levels will remain
high even if human emissions began to decline. Scientists expect the
concentrations to now remain above 400 parts per million for at least a human
lifetime.
Prof Ralph Keeling of the
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, who is a co-author on the paper, said:
"Back in September last year, we suspected that we were measuring CO2 concentrations below 400 parts per million
for the last time. Now it is looking like this was indeed the case." The
ongoing CO2 measurements
at Mauna Loa used in this study are made by the Scripps Institution of
Oceanography, and an independent set of measurements are made by the US National
Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, which runs the Mauna Loa
Observatory.
Chris Jones, also of the
Met Office Hadley Centre and another co-author, said: "Studying how these
natural cycles interact with human influences is an important part of climate
science. Making and testing predictions like this helps us build our
understanding and further develop climate models."
Story Source:
The above post is reprinted
from materials provided
byUniversity of Exeter. Note:
Materials may be edited for content and length.
Journal Reference:
1. John J. Kennedy et
al. El Niño and a record CO2 rise.Nature Climate Change,
June 2016 DOI:10.1038/nclimate3063