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Studi ular menemukan , Perubahan iklim lebih cepat dari spesies dapat beradaptasi 

Date:

December 6, 2011

Source:

Indiana University

Summary:

Rentang spesies harus berubah secara dramatis sebagai akibat dari perubahan iklim antara saat ini  dan 2100 karena iklim akan berubah lebih dari 100 kali lebih cepat dari tingkat di mana spesies dapat beradaptasi , menurut sebuah studi baru yang diterbitkan yang berfokus pada ular derik Amerika Utara .....read more

Climate changes faster than species can
adapt, rattlesnake study finds

Date:

December 6, 2011

Source:

Indiana University

Summary:

The ranges of species will have to change dramatically as a result of
climate change between now and 2100 because the climate will change more than
100 times faster than the rate at which species can adapt, according to a newly
published study that focuses on North American rattlesnakes.

.........................

The ranges of species will have to change dramatically as a result of
climate change between now and 2100 because the climate will change more than
100 times faster than the rate at which species can adapt, according to a newly
published study by Indiana University researchers.

The study, which focuses on North American rattlesnakes, finds that the
rate of future change in suitable habitat will be two to three orders of
magnitude greater than the average change over the past 300 millennia, a time
that included three major glacial cycles and significant variation in climate
and temperature.

"We find that, over the next 90 years, at best these species' ranges
will change more than 100 times faster than they have during the past 320,000
years," said Michelle Lawing, lead author of the paper and a doctoral
candidate in geological sciences and biology at IU Bloomington. "This rate
of change is unlike anything these species have experienced, probably since
their formation."

The study, "Pleistocene Climate, Phylogeny, and Climate Envelope
Models: An Integrative Approach to Better Understand Species' Response to
Climate Change," was published by the online science journal PLoS
ONE. Co-author is P. David Polly, associate professor in the Department of
Geological Sciences in the IU Bloomington College of Arts and Sciences.

The researchers make use of the fact that species have been responding to
climate change throughout their history and their past responses can inform
what to expect in the future. They synthesize information from climate cycle
models, indicators of climate from the geological record, evolution of
rattlesnake species and other data to develop what they call
"paleophylogeographic models" for rattlesnake ranges. This enables
them to map the expansion and contraction at 4,000-year intervals of the ranges
of 11 North American species of the rattlesnake genus Crotalus.

Projecting the models into the future, the researchers calculate the
expected changes in range at the lower and upper extremes of warming predicted
by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change -- between 1.1 degree and 6.4
degrees Celsius. They calculate that rattlesnake ranges have moved an average
of only 2.3 meters a year over the past 320,000 years and that their tolerances
to climate have evolved about 100 to 1000 times slower, indicating that range shifts
are the only way that rattlesnakes have coped with climate change in the recent
past. With projected climate change in the next 90 years, the ranges would be
displaced by a remarkable 430 meters to 2,400 meters a year.

Increasing temperature does not necessarily mean expanded suitable habitats
for rattlesnakes. For example, Crotalus horridus, the timber
rattlesnake, is now found throughout the Eastern United States. The study finds
that, with a temperature increase of 1.1 degree Celsius over the next 90 years,
its range would expand slightly into New York, New England and Texas. But with
an increase of 6.4 degrees, its range would shrink to a small area on the
Tennessee-North Carolina border. C. adamanteus, the eastern
diamondback rattlesnake, would be displaced entirely from its current range in
the southeastern U.S. with a temperature increase of 6.4 degrees.

The findings suggest snakes wouldn't be able to move fast enough to keep up
with the change in suitable habitat. The authors suggest the creation of
habitat corridors and managed relocation may be needed to preserve some
species.

Rattlesnakes are good indicators of climate change because they are
ectotherms, which depend on the environment to regulate their body
temperatures. But Lawing and Polly note that many organisms will be affected by
climate change, and their study provides a model for examining what may happen
with other species. Their future research could address the past and future
effects of climate change on other types of snakes and on the biological
communities of snakes.







Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by Indiana
University. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.







Journal Reference:

1.   
A. Michelle Lawing, P. David Polly. Pleistocene Climate, Phylogeny,
and Climate Envelope Models: An Integrative Approach to Better Understand
Species' Response to Climate Change. PLoS ONE, 2011; 6 (12):
e28554 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0028554

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/12/111205102637.htm

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