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peristiwa permukaan laut  pasifik yang extreme  dua kali lipat di masa mendatang

Date:

September 25, 2015

Source:

University of Hawaii at Manoa

Summary:

Banyak negara pulau Pasifik tropis berjuang untuk beradaptasi dengan kenaikan permukaan laut bertahap berasal dari pemanasan lautan dan pencairan es . Sekarang mereka juga dapat melihat jauh lebih sering ayunan permukaan laut yang ekstrim . Pelakunya adalah perubahan perilaku proyeksi fenomena El Nino dan respon angin  khas Pacific, menurut eksperimen pemodelan komputer terbaru dan analisis ‘tide –gauge’ .

............ Selama El Niño , air hangat dan permukaan air laut tinggi bergeser ke arah timur , meninggalkan di belakangnya  permukaan air laut rendah di Pasifik barat . Para ilmuwan telah menunjukkan bahwa jungkat-jungkit timur-barat  ini sering diikuti enam bulan sampai satu tahun kemudian oleh permukaan laut jungkat-jungkit serupa utara-selatan dengan tingkat air turun hingga satu kaki ( 30 cm ) di belahan bumi selatan .............more

Extreme Pacific
sea level events to double in future

Date:

September 25, 2015

Source:

University of Hawaii at Manoa

Summary:

Many tropical Pacific island nations are struggling to adapt to gradual sea
level rise stemming from warming oceans and melting ice caps. Now they may also
see much more frequent extreme sea level swings. The culprit is a projected
behavioral change of the El Niño phenomenon and its characteristic Pacific wind
response, according to recent computer modeling experiments and tide-gauge
analysis.

......................

Many tropical Pacific island nations are struggling to adapt to gradual sea
level rise stemming from warming oceans and melting ice caps. Now they may also
see much more frequent extreme interannual sea level swings. The culprit is a
projected behavioral change of the El Niño phenomenon and its characteristic
Pacific wind response, according to recent computer modeling experiments and
tide-gauge analysis by scientists Matthew Widlansky and Axel Timmermann at the
International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, and
their colleague Wenju Cai at CSIRO in Australia.

During El Niño, warm water and high sea levels shift eastward, leaving in
their wake low sea levels in the western Pacific. Scientists have already shown
that this east-west seesaw is often followed six months to a year later by a
similar north-south sea level seesaw with water levels dropping by up to one
foot (30 cm) in the Southern Hemisphere. Such sea level drops expose shallow
marine ecosystems in South Pacific Islands, causing massive coral die-offs with
a foul smelling tide called taimasa (pronounced [kai' ma'sa]) by Samoans.

The team of scientists recently asked, how will future greenhouse warming
affect the El Niño sea level seesaws? The scientist used state-of-the-art
climate models, which accounted for increasing greenhouse gas concentrations,
together with simulations of the observed climate and tide-gauge records to
verify the model results. They determined that projected climate change will
enhance El Niño-related sea level extremes. By the end of this century the
experiments show that the intensified wind impacts of strong El Niño and La
Niña events are likely to double the frequency of extreme sea level
occurrences, especially in the tropical southwestern Pacific.

"From our previous work, we know that toward the end of a very strong
El Niño event, the tide-gauge measurements around Guam quickly return to normal
reflecting the east-west seesaw, but those near Samoa continue to drop as a
result of the lagging north-south seesaw," explains Widlansky.
"During these strong events, the summer rainband over Samoa, called the
South Pacific Convergence Zone, shifts toward the equator and alters the trade
winds and ocean currents which in turn change the sea level."

"The next logical step in our work was to understand how future
changes in winds, projected by most climate models, will impact the interannual
swings in sea level," recalls Timmermann. "We noted a trend in
greater variability and were surprised at first to find not only more frequent
and prolonged drops in sea level, but also more frequent high sea level events.
This will further increase the risk of coastal inundations."

"Our results are consistent with previous findings that showed the
atmospheric effects of both El Niño and La Niña are likely to become stronger
and more common in a future warmer climate," explains Cai.

"The possibility of more frequent flooding in some areas and sea level
drops in others would have severe consequences for the vulnerable coastlines of
Pacific islands," says Widlansky.

The authors hope that better predictability of not only rising sea levels,
but also the sea level fluctuations examined in this study, will aid Pacific
Island communities in adapting to the impacts of climate change as well as
shorter-term climate events such as the ongoing 2015 El Niño.







Story Source:

The above post is reprinted from materials provided byUniversity
of Hawaii at Manoa. The original item was written by Marcie
Grabowski. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.







Journal Reference:

1.   
Wenju Cai et al. Future extreme sea level seesaws in the tropical
Pacific. Science Advances, September 2015 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1500560

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/09/150925142700.htm

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